Kazakhstan’s financial stress index: triggers are relevant again

main conclusions

• In April 2026, ACRA’s Kazakhstan Financial Stress Index (ACRA SFSI KZ) grew following stabilization in 2024 and 2025. This growth is almost entirely due to the increase in the estimated probability of trigger events.

• The key imbalance from January to March was the maturity imbalance in the financial sector. In the non-financial sector, this same type of imbalance moved into positive territory, driven by the dynamics of all elements of maturity in the corporate segment.

• The currency imbalance is positive across all sectors (in the non-financial segment, the primary imbalance is offset by expected export revenues) and is not a source of potential stress¹. Looking ahead to the end of this year, a more favorable external economic environment and growing corporate profitability, on the one hand, and the increased cost of liquidity amid still-tight monetary conditions, on the other, could exert mixed pressure on the currency imbalance.

¹ Financial stress refers to a negative imbalance, while a positive imbalance is not associated with stressful tendencies and is not considered a source of financial stress.

financial stress index performance

As of April 2026, the ACRA SFSI KZ had recorded growth relative to the entire period since April 2024. Over H2 2025 and in January 2026, the ACRA SFSI KZ amounted to 0.2–0.31 points, which enabled us to speak about its stabilization and the formation of a plateau. However, recent trends — primarily in terms of trigger potential — have significantly increased the assessment of stress.

Meanwhile, the imbalance indicator remained virtually unchanged for the currency imbalance, while the liquidity imbalance even decreased by 0.1%. Overall, these indicators are at quite comfortable levels.

In terms of currency risk, as before, the imbalance assessment is mitigated by positive assessments of a number of sectors from the four key assessed segments: government, financial, non-financial (corporate), and household finance.

The liquidity imbalance did not demonstrate any pronounced dynamics due to changes in the financial sector, where we can highlight the growth of the passive component — an increase in calculated interest expenditures and short-term liabilities (for the purposes of analysis, ACRA uses an indirect indicator: an assessment of the volume of short-term deposits of individuals in the country’s banking system).

It is worth noting the downward trend in net exports, which will lead to a growing current account deficit and potentially increase pressure on the tenge exchange rate. This trend is already partially visible in Kazakhstan’s current account balance for 2025, where the deficit was USD 12.45 bln, compared to USD 6.8 bln in 2024. This trend intensified in the first quarter of this year: the deficit was USD 1.79 bln, compared to USD 1.04 bln in the same period of 2025.

At the same time, within the framework of key parameters affecting aggregate balances across all sectors of the economy, ACRA expects a slight decline in the inflation component. This will be facilitated by the following factors: the planned fiscal policy consolidation for 2026–2027, the implementation of monetary policy transmission, and the likely change in the balance of the quasi-public sector as reforms are implemented in this segment of the broader public sector.

Figure 1. ACRA’s Kazakhstan Structural Financial Stress Index

Sources: Kazakh national agencies, ACRA

Figure 2. Structural financial stress index triggers²

² The unit of measurement is the percentage points of the spread for assessing the refinancing risk (for currency risk, the share at the maximum level is equal to one).
Sources: Kazakh national agencies, Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, ACRA

currency imbalance

The overall currency imbalance remains at zero, as imbalances in individual sectors have positive values, which is not considered by ACRA as a source of stress.

As of April of this year, two significant opposing trends were observed in the financial sector: a significant increase in foreign currency interest income and interest expenditures. Furthermore, foreign currency liquidity and assets in this sector have increased.

Foreign currency debt liabilities and the available portion of export revenues covering them continue to dominate the corporate sector. The latter, however, has been declining quarter-on-quarter, driven by a decline in dollar revenues from commodity exports and the strengthening of the tenge against the US dollar over the past six months.

The public sector remains in positive territory thanks to foreign currency debt assets, which reached record levels between October and December 2025 and are at comparatively high levels in 2026.

A similar trend is observed in household finances, amid significant foreign currency debt assets, rising foreign currency interest income, and declining interest expenses and foreign currency debt liabilities. At the same time, a reduction in foreign currency liquidity can be noted in this sector.

Figure 3. Currency imbalance by sector (positive values reflect a surplus of short-term liabilities over assets)³

³ Balance is the difference between foreign currency debt and interest-bearing assets and liabilities; it is shown as a percentage relative to the calculated aggregate debt position of all the specified sectors, non-residents, and the country’s central bank.
Sources: Kazakh national agencies, ACRA

liquidity imbalance

In terms of the liquidity imbalance in the financial sector, ACRA notes an increase in short-term liabilities of the banking system, an increase in interest expenditures of the financial sector, a decrease in foreign currency liquidity, and an increase in liquidity denominated in tenge and interest income.

A positive imbalance has developed in the non-financial (corporate) sector amid growing assets and a slight reduction in short-term debt liabilities, which include short-term liabilities of medium-sized and large companies⁴.

As for the public sector, we note a decrease in interest expenditures while other components remain unchanged.

A minor change in the dynamics of the components characterizing personal finances led to a slight increase in the positive imbalance in the sector. For certain components, we highlight the following: as of April this year, the interest rate on loans in foreign currency for individuals was 4% and on loans in tenge with a maturity of up to five years it was 24.76%, which increased interest expenditures in both currencies. At the same time, there was an increase in short-term assets of individuals: at the beginning of April, the volume of transferable deposits in tenge was around KZT 2.2 tln.

⁴ Calculated as the sum of short-term financial liabilities and tax liabilities.

Figure 4. Liquidity imbalance by sector (positive values reflect a surplus of short-term liabilities over assets)⁵

⁵ Balance is the difference between short-term assets and liabilities; it is shown as a percentage relative to the calculated aggregate debt position of all the specified sectors, non-residents, and the country’s central bank.
Sources: Kazakh national agencies, ACRA

POTENTIAL FOR TRIGGER EVENTS

Key financial stress risks

According to ACRA’s estimates, in the first months of 2026, the potential for trigger events associated with the currency risk and the refinancing risk has increased. In the first case, there was a slight increase (at the beginning of the year and in April), while in the second case, the trigger increased more significantly, reaching a two-year peak.

Last year, the estimated probability of trigger events decreased due to the relative stability of both refinancing risk (a small spread between market rates and monetary benchmarks) and currency risk (accumulated volatility in the middle and end of the year was relatively low).

On the horizon of one year to a year and a half, we still have to note significant uncertainty in global trade associated with aggressive trade protectionism and oil market volatility, which puts pressure on the tenge exchange rate.

In addition, the pressure from the inflationary component remains tangible against the background of a prolonged period of increased inflation and the need to maintain a tight monetary policy. ACRA believes that this pressure may negatively affect the dynamics of the finances of the population and the financial sector.

We note that the strengthened estimation of financial stress described above almost completely reflects the increased potential for trigger events, while different sectors of the economy show no signs of increased vulnerability to risk.

APPENDIX

WHAT DOES THE ACRA SFSI KZ SHOW AND WHAT ARE ITS COMPONENTS?

The ACRA Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan (ACRA SFSI KZ) assesses the proximity of the country’s financial system to a crisis. Linking different sectors of the economy, the financial system can contribute to the spread of defaults (regardless of the reasons) in some markets to other markets. Large-scale financial crises can lead to disruptions in the real sector of the economy (initially, due to local liquidity crises), which determines their importance.

The ACRA SFSI KZ is based on structural imbalances of the financial system. The Index aggregates information on the financial condition of economic agents and assesses their vulnerability to specific types of risk.

The financial condition of economic agents is studied on the basis of the maturity and currency structure of assets and liabilities at the sector level (financial companies, non-financial companies, the population, and the government). Imbalances in assets and liabilities by maturity and currency can cause a systemic risk when trigger events occur; in case of large imbalances, even weak triggers can result in a systemic crisis. On the contrary, powerful trigger events are not so significant when imbalances are small. The ACRA SFSI KZ includes trigger events such as manifestations of instability in the foreign exchange market and the interbank loan market. The first can impact expectations on the value of foreign exchange cash flows, the second — on the availability of short-term funding.

The Index analyzes two types of imbalances: liquidity imbalance and currency imbalance. The liquidity imbalance indicator evaluates the amount of additional funds required by economic agents in the coming year in order to fully repay short-term debt and pay interest on debt obligations. The currency imbalance indicator evaluates the total demand of various sectors of the economy for foreign currency, not secured by the flow of foreign currency debt assets, expected foreign currency operating income, or cash reserves. In contrast to the liquidity imbalance, the currency imbalance indicator includes both short-term and long-term assets and liabilities.