main conclusions
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In 2024, the productive electricity supply grew in 41 out of the 57 analyzed Russian regions with an industrial share in GRP of at least 21%. The largest growth was recorded in the Samara Region thanks to positive vehicle manufacturing dynamics.
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Last year, the indicator declined in 16 of the 57 regions included in the sample. The most significant decline took place in the Smolensk Region amid a fall in production in the chemicals industry.
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The structural features of regional economies and how fast they adapt to changing conditions are the main factors that determine the differences in the dynamics of productive electricity supply. The regions of the sample were divided into three groups according to these criteria.
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In a three-year retrospective, some regions maintained the productive electricity supply at a level no lower than 2021. More than half of the regions, even if they briefly showed a reduction in the productive supply below the 2021 level, demonstrated indicators exceeding it in 2024
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During the period of decline in certain industrial sectors, the following sectors continued to support demand for electricity and, as a consequence, the regional economy: food industry; some areas of metalworking; production of computers, electronic, optical products and electrical equipment; and production, transmission and distribution of electricity.
results of 2024
For more details, see ACRA’s analytical commentaries Useful Indicator from June 22, 2023 and Useful Indicator Turns Green from August 28, 2024.In 2024, in 41 industrial regions of Russia out of the 571 analyzed, there was an increase in the indicator of the productive electricity supply by guaranteed suppliers for the category Other Consumers2. ACRA uses this indicator together with the indicators of Rosstat to assess the dynamics of industrial production and loading of production facilities in energy-intensive sectors because, in the Agency’s opinion, it reflects the dynamics of industrial demand3 for electricity4.
1 In the context of this research, the share of industry in the gross regional product (GRP) sufficient to consider the productive supply indicator relevant for assessing industrial demand for electricity at a regional level is taken to be at least 21%. The analyzed sample does not include the DPR, LPR, and the Zaporozhye and Kherson Regions due to the lack of complete statistical data for these regions. In addition, the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug with its share of industry in the GRP exceeding 21% was excluded from the analysis given the low absolute indicator of productive supply (insignificant changes in its absolute values lead to high volatility of the index). The indicators for the Tyumen and Arkhangelsk Regions include data from autonomous districts due to the specifics of information disclosure by sales companies.
2 This category includes the volume of electricity supplied to legal entities and budgetary consumers in a specific region, but excludes losses, as well as the volume of electricity supplied to the population and equivalent categories of consumers.
3 Hereinafter, industrial demand means demand from legal entities.
4 Besides the capacity utilization of energy-intensive industries, the change in the indicator is significantly affected by the change in the market share of guaranteed suppliers, which currently fluctuates in the range of 40–90% in various regions of Russia. The remaining market share is served by independent energy sales organizations, which should promote the development of competition in the industry.
Figure 1. The Samara Region was the leader in terms of growth of productive electricity supply in 2024
Sources: electricity companies, ACRA
The three leaders in terms of growth in the productive electricity supply in 2024 included the Samara and Kostroma5 Regions, as well as the Republic of Karelia.
The dynamics of the indicator in the Samara Region, as a rule, are determined by two key industries — oil and gas production and vehicle manufacturing. In 2024, their shares in the total volume of shipped goods of own production, completed work and services in industry (hereinafter, the volume of shipped goods) amounted to 22% and 23%, respectively. Production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers demonstrated significant growth last year compared to the same period of the previous year — the industrial production index (IPI) for January to December 2024 was 128%. This growth was reflected in the increase of the productive electricity supply. Oil and gas production last year recorded minor positive dynamics (the IPI was 100.6%).
In the Republic of Karelia, the increase in the productive electricity supply last year was facilitated by mining (39% of the total volume of shipped goods in the region’s industrial production in 2024). In 2022, the IPI in the sector declined, but mining began to recover in the following year, while for January to December 2024 the IPI was 102%. Changes in production volumes in mining, as one of the most energy-intensive6 sectors, usually have a very strong impact on the productive electricity supply in the regions.
In a number of regions of the sample, there was no revival of the dynamics of productive electricity supply in 2024 compared to the year before.
It should be noted that changes to the productive electricity supply by guaranteed suppliers are not always related solely to changes in the volume of industrial production. ACRA highlights the following as possible reasons:
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Changes to the market share of guaranteed suppliers due to competition from independent sales companies;
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Changes to the structure of regional industry in terms of energy intensity: redistribution of resources (financial, labor, etc.) from more energy-intensive sectors to less energy-intensive ones;
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Development of energy-saving technologies and their implementation in industrial production.
The biggest decline in the productive electricity supply last year was recorded in the Tomsk Region (-34%), although this was primarily due to the decline of the market share of the guaranteed electricity supplier, which in 2024 fell from 80% to 60%, and to a lesser extent due to economic reasons. As a result, data for the Tomsk Region is not displayed in Fig. 2.
5 See page 6 for detailed information on the dynamics of productive electricity supply in the Kostroma Region.
6 A comparative assessment of the energy intensity of industries was performed based on A. S. Martynov’s paper Dynamics of the Energy Intensity of Sectors of the Russian Economy (2005–2020).
Figure 2. The largest decline in the productive electricity supply relative to 2023 took place in the Smolensk Region
Sources: electricity companies, ACRA
Besides the Tomsk Region, substantial declines in the productive electricity supply were recorded in the Smolensk, Penza, and Kaliningrad Regions.
The decrease in the indicator in the Smolensk Region is associated with a reduction in production in the chemicals industry, which accounts for almost 10% of the total volume of shipped goods in the region’s industrial production (the IPI in this sector for January–December 2024 amounted to 92.6%).
In the Penza Region, the decrease in the productive electricity supply in 2024 could have been due to a fall in production in mechanical engineering and instrument making, the total share of which in the total volume of goods shipped by manufacturing industries, as a rule, is about 20% (the IPI for January–December 2024 in the production of electrical equipment was 82.5%, in the production of machinery and equipment not included in other groupings it was 84.9%, and in the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers it was 92.4%).
In the Kaliningrad Region, the decrease in productive electricity supply over the past three years was largely due to a reduction in production volumes in mechanical engineering and automobile manufacturing. In 2022 and 2023, the IPI in production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers stood at 31.6% and 42.7%, respectively, and in the production of machinery and equipment not included in other groups it was 67.8% and 97.5%, respectively. As a result, the total share of production of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, as well as machinery and equipment not included in other groupings, in the total volume of goods shipped by manufacturing industries decreased from 47% to 15% in the period from 2021 to 2023. There was a slight recovery in 2024 — the IPI in the above industries was 103.8% and 123.3%, respectively. Despite the growth in production volumes in key industries, the productive electricity supply by the end of 2024 still decreased, although to a much lesser extent than the year before. The continuing decline in energy-intensive sectors such as metallurgy, metalworking, computer manufacturing, electronic and optical products, and electrical equipment manufacturing had a restraining effect (the IPI for January–December 2024 was 92.6%, 99.1%, 97.3%, and 74.7%, respectively)7.
At the same time, the decline in these industries was accompanied by active development of the food industry. In this regard, the share of shipped goods of own production in the total volume of goods shipped by manufacturing industries increased from 35% in 2021 to 60% in 2023. The growth of production in the less energy-intensive industry led to a positive aggregate IPI in 2024, despite a decrease in production in more energy-intensive sectors. However, the productive electricity supply decreased against the backdrop of a total reduction in consumption by industry.
To a large extent, the dynamics of the analyzed indicator depend on the structural features of regional economies, as well as the speed of how they adapt to changing conditions.
From the viewpoint of the conditional degree of economic adaptation, the regions can be divided into three groups:
1. Regions with a high degree of economic adaptability — the productive electricity supply in these regions in 2022–2024 either did not decrease or decreased in 2022, and has been steadily growing since 2023 (Fig. 3, light green).
2. Regions with a moderate degree of economic adaptability — the productive electricity supply in these regions decreased for two consecutive years (in 2022 and 2023), growth began only in 2024 (Fig. 3–4, light orange).
3. Regions without a stable recovery trend — the productive electricity supply in these regions decreased in 2024 after two years of growth (Fig. 3–4, blue). This group also includes regions that have demonstrated a decrease in the productive supply of electricity more than once, with the exception of regions with a moderate degree of adaptability (Fig. 3–4, red).
7 Together, the listed industries accounted for 7.5% of the total volume of goods shipped by manufacturing industries in 2023.
productive electricity supply indicator over the past three years
Over the past three years, the productive electricity supply has recovered to the level of 2021 in most Russian regions.
More than half of the regions (27 out of 41) that demonstrated an increase in the productive electricity supply in 2024 have already returned to the level of 2021. At the same time, seven of these 27 regions have not declined below this level in three years. Three of the 16 regions that demonstrated a decrease in the productive electricity supply last year, nevertheless, remain above the level of 2021 in this indicator.
REGIONS WHERE LAST YEAR’S NET ELECTRICITY SUPPLY EXCEEDED THE LEVEL OF 2021
In as few as 30 of the 57 analyzed regions, the net electricity supply in 2024 exceeded its value in 2021. It should be noted that in 2022, a decrease in the productive supply was recorded in 42 of the 57 analyzed regions.
Figure 3. Over the past three years, in most of the regions in the group, the productive electricity supply either did not decline or declined only in 2022
Sources: electricity companies, ACRA
The Kostroma, Sakhalin, and Irkutsk Regions were the leaders in terms of the increase in productive electricity supply in 2022–2024.
In the Kostroma Region, the largest share in the volume of shipped industrial goods is occupied by the production of other finished products (25% in 2024), which primarily includes the production of jewelry. However, the dynamics of the productive electricity supply mainly depends on woodworking and the automotive industry, which also account for significant shares (a total of 23%) of the volume of shipped goods in the region’s industry in 2024. In 2022, according to the IPI, a decrease in production volumes was recorded in the three abovementioned industries (the IPI for January–December 2022 was 96.1%, 76.6%, and 82.9%, respectively), which had a constraining effect on the productive supply. In 2023 and 2024, as industries recovered in the Kostroma Region, primarily the automotive industry (the IPI in January–December 2023 was 118.4%, while in January–December 2024 it was 112.7%) as the most energy-intensive of the leading industries, as well as to a lesser but still significant extent, the woodworking industry (the IPI for January–December 2023 was 105.0%, while in January–December 2024 it was 107.4%), the productive electricity supply grew.
In the Irkutsk Region, the productive electricity supply largely depends on the mining industry (50.7% of industrial goods shipped in 2024). However, in 2023, when the IPI in the mining industry showed a slight decrease relative to the level of 2022 and amounted to 97.2%, the region’s metallurgy industry (IPI at 100.5%) and the industry supply of electric energy, gas and steam; air conditioning (IPI at 101.0%) maintained positive dynamics and did not allow for a reduction in net supplies.
A number of regions show multidirectional dynamics of the productive electricity supply and IPI in key industries. This can be explained by changes in the energy intensity of industrial production. A decrease in the productive supply coupled with a growing IPI may indicate a decrease in production in more energy-intensive industries (for example, coal mining, metallurgy, machinery and equipment production) and an increase in less energy-intensive industries (for example, food, pulp and paper industry, metal products, except machinery and equipment). An increase in the productive electricity supply coupled with decreasing industrial output may indicate either the development of more energy-intensive industries amid shrinking less energy-intensive ones or an increase in the number of market participants in non-industrial segments. A typical example of the second scenario is the Sakhalin Region where, in parallel with the continuous growth of productive supply, there was a decrease in output in the main extractive industry in 2022 and 2024. According to RusHydro, the increase in the productive supply in the Sakhalin Region was driven by a growing number of grid connections to new industrial and social facilities, as well as small business facilities with a capacity of up to 15 kW. Each of the connected entities contributes to the growth of energy consumption and is referred to as ‘other consumers’ in the productive electricity supply, while each of them is not necessarily a contributor to the volume of industrial production. Therefore, against the backdrop of an increase in the number of non-industrial consumers, the volume of electricity supplied by the guaranteed supplier in 2022 and 2024 not only did not decrease after the decline in the extractive industry but actually showed a slight increase, and in 2023, when the IPI in the region’s mining industry amounted to 120.3%, the productive supply increased even more significantly.
REGIONS WHERE LAST YEAR’S PRODUCTIVE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DID NOT REACH THE LEVEL OF 2021
In 27 industrial regions of Russia out of the 57 analyzed ones, the productive electricity supply was lower in 2024 than in 2021, but in 14 of them, there was a revival in the dynamics of the productive electricity supply, due to which the indicator for the specified period exceeded the value of the previous year.
Figure 4. Regions where the productive electricity supply was lower in 2024 than in 2021
Sources: electricity companies, ACRA
The most significant decrease of productive electricity supply in 2024 relative to the level of 2021 was recorded in the Novgorod Region. In this region, the chemicals industry had the most significant deterrent effect on the analyzed indicator in the period from 2022 to 2024 (38% of the volume of industrial goods shipped in 2024). In 2022 and 2023, the woodworking industry could have also contributed to a decrease in the volume of productive supply (6.2% of the volume of industrial goods shipped in 2024). Over the past three years, the IPI in the region’s chemicals industry was 99.7%, 96.8%, and 98.3%, respectively, while in woodworking it 64.1%, 84.4%, and 113%, respectively.
In the Tomsk Region, the main share of GRP is formed by oil and gas production (37% of the volume of industrial goods shipped in 2024); significant contributors are also the chemicals and petrochemical industries (together about 14% of industrial goods shipped in 2024). Oil and gas production decreased in the region for at least last 10 years (the IPI was 99.6% in 2024), however, until last year this did not lead to a reduction in the productive electricity supply due to parallel growth in a number of manufacturing industries. In 2024, the production volumes in the chemicals and petrochemical industries decreased (IPI at 99.8% and 90.7%, respectively), which could have some restraining effect on the volume of productive supply. However, in the case under consideration, the fall in productive supply was largely due to a noticeable reduction in the market share of the guaranteed electricity supplier.
In the Kaliningrad Region8 and the Nizhny Novgorod Region, the dynamics of the productive electricity supply are determined by the automotive industry: following the reduction in production output, the productive supply also decreased. In the Nizhny Novgorod Region, a significant reduction in the automotive industry’s output was recorded only in 2022 (IPI in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers was 57.3%), and in 2023 the industry began to recover (IPI in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers was 119.2% in 2023 and 116.9% in 2024). In the Arkhangelsk Region, the decrease in the productive supply observed in 2022 can be explained by a slowdown in a number of manufacturing industries (IPI in the manufacturing sector for the period from January to December 2022 was 94.4%), in the next two years, the mining industry had a restraining effect on the volume of productive supply, which forms slightly less than 40% of the region’s GRP (IPI in mining was 111.0% in 2022, 93.3% in 2023, and 97.8% in 2024).
Over the past three years, against the background of declining production indicators in the mining, metals, automotive, chemicals and woodworking industries in a number of regions, the productive supply, as an indicator of demand for electricity, has also shown negative dynamics. However, in most cases, this indicator has already shown a recovery trend. In the period from 2022 to 2024, the following industries consistently supported demand for electricity and, as a result, regional economies: food industry; production of finished metal products, except machinery and equipment; production of computers, electronics, optical products and electrical equipment; production, transmission and distribution of electric power. These industries not only proved to be the most resilient in a situation of uncertainty, but also showed a significant increase in production volumes.
8 For more information on the dynamics of the productive electricity supply in the Kaliningrad Region, see page 4–5.
