Issue IV: Q1 2024
ACRA presents the fourth issue of its Debt Market Bulletin, which describes the current situation and trends in Russia’s fixed income and public debt market.
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In Q1 2024, bond yields for both the government and corporate sectors remained high after the raising of the key rate by the Bank of Russia in H2 2023.
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Since the beginning of the current year, volumes of new corporate bond placements decreased significantly compared to the record volumes of Q4 2023 (when issuers strived to increase bond issuance assuming that interest rates would rise in the future). However, the decline of placement volumes in comparison with the previous quarter occurred mainly due to the seasonal factor. The decline of the new bond issuance volume was not so significant versus the first quarter of last year, while growth of volumes of exchange trading of bonds indicates that market participants still have high demand for new bond placements. At the same time, ACRA does not expect significant growth of new issues of ruble-denominated corporate bonds before the end of H1 2024 in continuing tight monetary conditions.
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The default rate on corporate bond repayments in 2023 was around 0.1% of outstanding nominal value of the total corporate bond market. Since the beginning of 2024, there has been an increase in outstanding liabilities for bonds, but the overall default rate remains low, which allows us to conclude that the bond market is adapting to high interest rates.
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The deadline for replacing Eurobonds of Russian companies has been officially extended until July 1, 2024. According to ACRA’s estimates, the volume of issuance for replacement bonds in the corporate segment could amount to USD 14–16 bln (taking into account the current replacement ratio). In addition, there is potential for substitution of government Eurobonds, the volume of which exceeds USD 32 bln.
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ACRA’s rating coverage of the total corporate bond market exceeds 70% in terms of outstanding nominal value. Banks and oil and gas companies (key industries of the Russian economy) are the most covered by the Agency’s ratings (96% of bond debt for each industry).
Current state of the debt market
In Q1 2024, the bond market grew by 2.4% and amounted to RUB 45.6 tln. This growth was primarily driven by federal loan bonds (OFZs) (+2.2%) and corporate bonds (+2.6%). New bond issues were placed in the corporate segment in Q1 to a total of almost RUB 1.4 tln (a decrease of less than 10% compared to the figure for Q1 2023). Against the backdrop of continued high interest rates and the influence of the seasonal factor, taking into account which the maximum placements in recent years occurred in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of the bond market at the beginning of the year in value terms decreased noticeably compared to the record dynamics of Q4 2023, when the total volume new issues of corporate bonds exceeded RUB 3 tln.
Amid a budget deficit, the Russian Ministry of Finance continued to actively raise debt financing by issuing OFZs. In Q1 2024, the Ministry of Finance placed new OFZs worth more than RUB 0.8 tln and thereby exceeded its target slightly. Placement of OFZs worth up to RUB 1 tln is planned for the second quarter (details about the structure of consolidated public debt are provided in Appendix 1).
In the first quarter, corporate bond market growth was driven by non-financial companies that placed new bond issues worth more than RUB 0.9 tln, while their total bond debt (by outstanding nominal value) grew by 3.5% (Table 1).
Table 1. Bond market structure by outstanding nominal value, RUB bln
1 Including OFZ-PK, OFZ-PD, OFZ-IN, OFZ-AD, OFZ-n, GSO-PPS, GSO-FPS, excluding Eurobonds
2 Including State Corporation “VEB.RF”
3 Including JSC “DOM.RF”, leasing companies, and microfinance companies
Sources: Russian Ministry of Finance, Cbonds, ACRA
Given the volume of planned repayments in the second quarter (around RUB 500 bln), ACRA does not expect considerable growth in the volume of new corporate bond placements by the end of the first quarter on the condition that the Bank of Russia’s key rate remains high.
The default rate for repayment of ruble-denominated corporate bonds in 2023 was about 0.1% of the total volume of the outstanding nominal value. Since the start of 2024, there has been an increase in unfulfilled obligations for bonds, which is largely due to the impact of regulatory factors; in particular, QIWI Finance LLC defaulted due to the revocation of the license of QIWI Bank (JSC). However, the overall default rate remains low, which indicates the insignificant impact of the fluctuation of interest rates on the financial stability of bond issuers over the past reporting periods.
In Q1 2024, oil and gas and metallurgical companies were most active in placing bonds, as well as financial organizations (Fig. 1).Figure 1. Industries of new issuers
Sources: Cbonds, ACRA
Bonds in circulation have mainly been issued by first-tier issuers; they account for 53% of the bond market by outstanding nominal value. Bonds of second-tier issuers make up almost 24% of the market, while issuers of the high-risk segment account for around 3%. Companies without credit ratings, including bonds of mortgage agents (6% of the market), account for around 20% of the market in total. However, in terms of the number of bonds, issuers without ratings and third-tier issuers account for 69% of all borrowers, which indicates that these market participants offer much more modest bond issues. The structure of the corporate debt market by level of risk as of the end of Q1 2024 is given in Fig. 2–3.
4 Credit ratings assigned by one of the four credit rating agencies registered by the Bank of Russia
5 Mortgage agents without credit ratings
Sources: Cbonds, ACRA
At the beginning of the year, the activity of borrowers of all risk groups decreased after the record placements recorded in Q4 2023 (Fig. 4). The total volume of new corporate bond placements in the opening months of 2024 amounted to only 46% of the volume of bonds placed from October to December 2023. The significant decrease in volumes compared to the previous quarter is due to seasonal factors, as well as the persistence of high interest rates. Under the conditions of high interest rates, the combined share of third-tier segments and unrated bonds in the volume of new issues decreased to 13% (vs. 41% in Q4). This is partly related to the high base effect — in December 2023, LLC “DOM.RF Mortgage Agent” (no credit rating) performed major bond placements totaling more than RUB 0.4 tln. Coupon rates for new placements in the first quarter showed an increase for all tiers, with the exception of the second tier (with issuer ratings from AA+ to A-), while coupon rates in the second tier were even lower than in the first (Fig. 5). This is explained by the fact that companies with the highest credit ratings issued a large number of floating coupon bonds in expectation of a reduction in the key rate from H2 2024.
6 Weighted average coupon rate for 3-year corporate bonds issued in the analyzed period. The sample only includes market exchange-traded issues, including non-financial companies, banks, and other financial institutions. There was not enough data to calculate the indicator for Q1 2024 for category B ratings.
Sources: Cbonds, ACRA
Against the backdrop of the increase in the key rate, yields on the secondary market for ruble-denominated corporate bonds in H2 2023 increased on average by more than 400 bps. In the first quarter of this year, yield indices for the first7 tier increased by 59 bps relative to the average values of the fourth quarter of the previous year, for the second8 tier they grew by 67 bps, and for the third9 tier they grew by 90 bps. At the same time, ACRA notes the broadening of spreads between the tiers of bonds of high quality and more risky issuers (after a narrowing that took place in Q4 2023), which is likely due to expectations of higher risks of corporate debt in the event of a consistently high key rate (Fig. 6).
Figure 6. Difference in yields of issuers
7 The Cbonds CBI RU Top Market Investable YTM was used to determine tier 1 yields.
8 The Cbonds CBI RU Middle Market Investable YTM was used to determine tier 2 yields.
9 The Cbonds-CBI RU High Yield YTM was used to determine tier 3 yields.
Sources: Cbonds, ACRA
The yields of government bonds in the first quarter of this year also continued to grow, which was especially noticeable in the short part of the curve (Fig. 7). At the same time, the inversion of the G-curve remains, as well as the negative spread between the key rate and OFZ yields. On the whole, the yield dynamics of government bonds indicates growth of uncertainty among market players regarding the beginning of a softening of monetary policy in view of the fact that at its previous key rate meetings, the Bank of Russia has noted that pro-inflationary risks will persist in the medium term.
Figure 7. OFZ curve dynamics
Source: Bank of Russia
Exchange turnover of government bond trading in Q1 2024 exceeded the volumes for the same period last year by RUB 288 bln, which indicates a continued trend of growth in trading activity in the secondary market against the backdrop of placements of new OFZ issues. Similar dynamics can be seen in other segments too, including the corporate segment, taking into account total volumes of trade of other bonds (Fig. 8). According to the Moscow Exchange, the weighted average volume of trade of corporate, regional, and government bonds in March 2024 amounted to RUB 96.9 bln (vs. RUB 78.6 bln a year earlier).
Figure 8. Exchange trade volume for bonds, RUB bln
Sources: Moscow Exchange, ACRA
The total volume of replacement corporate bonds issued by the end of 2023 amounted to about USD 19.7 bln (more than twofold growth over the year). At the same time, since the middle of the year, their yields have been declining due to increased demand from market participants against the background of a weakening ruble exchange rate. According to Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 364 dated May 22, 2023, the substitution of Russian issuers’ Eurobonds was to be completed by the end of 2023, but the deadline was extended until July 1, 2024, taking into account the significant volumes of the upcoming substitution. In Q1 2024, further replacement bonds were issued to a total of USD 3.1 bln. Taking into account the total volume of outstanding Eurobonds of Russian companies and the actual average level of substitution (about 50% of the initial nominal value), ACRA estimates the potential for substitution in the corporate segment (in USD equivalent) at USD 14–16 bln. At the same time, further issuances of corporate replacement bonds will depend on issuers’ plans, as they may not to proceed with substitution by obtaining the appropriate permission. In addition, significant amounts of replacement bonds may be issued by the Russian Ministry of Finance (the volume of outstanding government Eurobonds at the end of March 2024 was USD 32.7 bln), which is likely to trigger an outflow of free liquidity from the corporate debt market.
The growth of the market of digital financial assets (DFAs), which are mainly represented by short-term financial obligations of issuers, slowed down at the beginning of this year relative to the record figures of Q4 2023 when the volume and number of issues almost doubled compared to the previous quarter). In total, 88 new DFA issues took place in Q1 2024 compared to 173 issues in Q4 2023. In general, the dynamics of the number DFA issues in the periods under review corresponded to the general dynamics of the bond market, which is probably due to the seasonal factor. The number of data system operators (DSOs) has increased to 11 since the beginning of this year (in March, Tinkoff Bank was included in the DSO register). Currently, the DFA exchange operators in Russia are the Moscow Exchange and the St. Petersburg Exchange. Further growth of the DFA market will largely depend on regulatory and legislative changes. In ACRA’s opinion, DFA tools have great potential, taking into account the features of hybrid DFAs (in particular, those that include utilitarian digital rights) and the possibility of using these tools in foreign trade settlements.
For further details, see ACRA’s analytical commentary Russian ESG Bond Market: a Period of Rethinking from January 31, 2024.
The volume of ESG bonds10issued in the Russian market in 2023 amounted to RUB 142.8 bln (34.5% growth compared to 2022); the share of ESG bonds in the total volume of new bond issues is about 2%. According to the Moscow Exchange, in Q1 2024, three new issues totaling RUB 22 bln were placed in the Sustainable Development Segment (two bond issues of LLC “SPC “Infrastructure Notes” and one bond issue of EuroTrans PJSC). For comparison, only one issue worth RUB 5 bln was placed in Q1 2023. According to ACRA’s estimates, the maximum possible volume of ESG bond issuance in the Russian market in 2024 is RUB 200 bln (in the absence of regulatory incentives and external shocks).
Credit risks of issuers
In 2023, the Russian corporate debt market saw a default on the bonds of companies of the Goldman Group (MC Goldman Group PJSC, TH Myasnichy LLC, IS Petroleum LLC, and SoyuzAgroElita LLC), as well as TH Sintecom LLC. The total volume of defaults for 2023 is estimated at RUB 6.4 bln, which is about 0.1% of the total outstanding nominal value of corporate bonds. Since the beginning of 2024, there has been one default (QIWI Finance LLC defaulted after the license of QIWI Bank (JSC) was revoked).
In the context of the tight monetary policy, the risks of refinancing previously issued bonds remain high for companies in the high-yield bond sector with low liquidity and debt coverage metrics. At the same time, ACRA does not forecast a significant increase in the number of defaults In the bond market in 2024, given that issuers have adapted to high interest rates over recent months.
At the end of Q1 2024, almost 80% of public debt was covered by credit ratings (Appendix 2), while about 77% of the total volume of outstanding bonds were rated A- or higher on the national scale for the Russian Federation, which corresponds to the probability of expected one-year default rate of ACRA at less than 1.5% in the ruble-denominated bond market.
In Q2 2024, the total volume of upcoming repayments on corporate bonds is about RUB 500 bln, which is 7% higher than in Q1 2024. ACRA expects that, given the continued tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, activity from the borrowers with high credit ratings in the segment of ruble-denominated corporate bonds will remain around the current level (with a likely increase in the share of floating coupon bonds), while borrowers in the high-yield bond sector will reduce the volume of new issuances against the background of high yields of risk-free assets.
APPENDIX 1
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 2024 | |||||||
| Debt of the general government of the Russian Federation | |||||||||||||
| TOTAL | 14,113.8 | 15,103.5 | 20,629.9 | 22,269.4 | 23,759.2 | 26,468.5 | 26,933.8 | ||||||
| % of GDP | 13.5% | 13.8% | 19.2% | 16.5% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 15.6% | ||||||
| USD bln | 204.9 | 244.0 | 279.3 | 299.8 | 337.8 | 295.1 | 291.6 | ||||||
| guarantees | 2,305.9 | 1,744.9 | 2,048.9 | 2,170.0 | 2,112.3 | 2,439.2 | 2,496.9 | ||||||
| securities | 10,839.9 | 12,458.5 | 17,677.0 | 19,477.4 | 21,294.2 | 23,624.3 | 24,122.1 | ||||||
| other | 968.1 | 900.1 | 904.0 | 622.0 | 352.8 | 405.0 | 314.8 | ||||||
| guarantees | 16.3% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | ||||||
| securities | 76.8% | 82.5% | 85.7% | 87.5% | 89.6% | 89.3% | 89.6% | ||||||
| other | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | ||||||
| Internal debt11 | n/a 12 | 11,670.0 | 16,421.8 | 17,816.6 | 19,709.6 | 21,675.0 | 22,045.7 | ||||||
| External debt | n/a | 3,433.5 | 4,208.1 | 4,452.8 | 4,049.7 | 4,793.5 | 4,888.1 | ||||||
| internal debt | n/a | 77.3% | 79.6% | 80.0% | 83.0% | 81.9% | 81.9% | ||||||
| external debt | n/a | 22.7% | 20.4% | 20.0% | 17.0% | 18.1% | 18.1% | ||||||
| TOTAL | 12,562.1 | 13,567.4 | 18,940.4 | 20,921.9 | 22,819.5 | 25,595.2 | 26,160.5 | ||||||
| % of GDP | 12.0% | 12.4% | 17.6% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 15.2% | ||||||
| USD bln | 182.4 | 219.2 | 256.4 | 281.6 | 324.4 | 285.4 | 283.2 | ||||||
| guarantees | 2,223.6 | 1,661.0 | 1,993.4 | 2,126.0 | 2,083.6 | 2,381.3 | 2,434.7 | ||||||
| securities | 10,270.4 | 11,848.7 | 16,882.5 | 18,657.7 | 20,628.5 | 23,076.5 | 23,587.0 | ||||||
| other | 68.1 | 57.7 | 64.5 | 138.1 | 107.5 | 137.4 | 138.8 | ||||||
| guarantees | 17.7% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | ||||||
| securities | 81.8% | 87.3% | 89.1% | 89.2% | 90.4% | 90.2% | 90.2% | ||||||
| other | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | ||||||
| internal debt | 9,176.4 | 10,171.9 | 14,751.4 | 16,486.4 | 18,781.0 | 20,812.8 | 21,283.1 | ||||||
| external debt | 3,385.7 | 3,395.4 | 4,189.0 | 4,435.4 | 4,038.6 | 4,782.4 | 4,877.4 | ||||||
| internal debt | 73.0% | 75.0% | 77.9% | 78.8% | 82.3% | 81.3% | 81.4% | ||||||
| external debt | 27.0% | 25.0% | 22.1% | 21.2% | 17.7% | 18.7% | 18.6% | ||||||
| Internal debt | 9,176.4 | 10,171.9 | 14,751.4 | 16,486.4 | 18,781.0 | 20,812.8 | 21,283.1 | ||||||
| guarantees | 1,426.9 | 840.5 | 695.3 | 726.6 | 701.7 | 700.4 | 718.6 | ||||||
| securities | 7,749.5 | 9,331.4 | 14,056.2 | 15,759.9 | 18,079.3 | 20,112.4 | 20,564.5 | ||||||
| External debt | 3,385.7 | 3,395.4 | 4,189.0 | 4,435.4 | 4,038.6 | 4,782.4 | 4,877.4 | ||||||
| guarantees | 796.7 | 820.4 | 1,298.2 | 1,399.4 | 1,381.9 | 1,680.9 | 1,716.1 | ||||||
| securities | 2,520.9 | 2,517.3 | 2,826.3 | 2,897.9 | 2,549.2 | 2,964.1 | 3,022.5 | ||||||
| other | 68.1 | 57.7 | 64.5 | 138.1 | 107.5 | 137.4 | 138.8 | ||||||
| Debt of administrative subjects | 2,206.3 | 2,113.0 | 2,496.0 | 2,474.4 | 2,788.7 | 3,220.5 | 3,183.5 | ||||||
| % of GDP | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | ||||||
| USD bln | 32.0 | 34.1 | 33.8 | 33.3 | 39.6 | 35.9 | 34.5 | ||||||
| guarantees | 71.5 | 55.4 | 48.4 | 39.3 | 24.9 | 53.3 | 57.4 | ||||||
| securities | 551.4 | 588.5 | 769.9 | 799.9 | 651.8 | 537.2 | 525.7 | ||||||
| bank loans | 636.0 | 575.8 | 568.1 | 257.6 | 126.2 | 126.7 | 85.9 | ||||||
| budget loans | 940.0 | 886.2 | 1 102.9 | 1 371.5 | 1 979.9 | 2 497.8 | 2 509.0 | ||||||
| other | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | ||||||
| Internal debt | 2,206.3 | 2,086.9 | 2,468.4 | 2,449.0 | 2,769.9 | 3,202.3 | 3,165.6 | ||||||
| guarantees | 71.5 | 45.7 | 36.3 | 28.4 | 19.8 | 47.8 | 52.0 | ||||||
| securities | 551.4 | 588.5 | 769.9 | 799.9 | 651.8 | 537.2 | 525.7 | ||||||
| bank loans | 636.0 | 575.8 | 568.1 | 257.6 | 126.2 | 126.7 | 85.9 | ||||||
| budget loans | 940.0 | 876.8 | 1,094.1 | 1,363.2 | 1,972.1 | 2,490.6 | 2,501.9 | ||||||
| other | 7.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| External debt | - | 26.1 | 27.6 | 25.4 | 18.8 | 18.1 | 17.9 | ||||||
| guarantees | - | 9.7 | 12.12 | 10.88 | 5.13 | 5.56 | 5.31 | ||||||
| securities | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||
| bank loans | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||
| budget loans | - | 9.4 | 8.79 | 8.30 | 7.78 | 7.17 | 7.17 | ||||||
| other | - | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 5.4 | ||||||
| Debt of municipalities | 371.9 | 401.4 | 387.6 | 377.0 | 374.6 | 397.8 | 382.4 | ||||||
| % of GDP | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| USD bln | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | ||||||
| guarantees | 10.7 | 28.6 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.9 | ||||||
| securities | 18.1 | 21.3 | 24.7 | 19.9 | 13.9 | 10.6 | 9.4 | ||||||
| bank loans | 256.5 | 259.5 | 264.7 | 220.0 | 113.3 | 135.4 | 84.6 | ||||||
| budget loans | 86.5 | 92.1 | 91.2 | 132.4 | 243.6 | 247.2 | 283.5 | ||||||
| other | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Internal debt | n/a | 380.1 | 387.2 | 376.8 | 374.5 | 397.7 | 382.4 | ||||||
| % of GDP | n/a | 0.3% | |||||||||||
| USD bln | n/a | 6.1 | |||||||||||
| guarantees | n/a | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | ||||||
| securities | n/a | 21.3 | 24.7 | 19.9 | 13.9 | 10.6 | 9.4 | ||||||
| bank loans | n/a | 259.5 | 264.7 | 220.0 | 113.3 | 135.4 | 84.6 | ||||||
| budget loans | n/a | 92.1 | 91.2 | 132.4 | 243.6 | 247.2 | 283.5 | ||||||
| other | n/a | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| External debt | n/a | 21.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 | ||||||
| % of GDP | n/a | 0.0194% | |||||||||||
| USD bln | n/a | 0.344 | |||||||||||
| guarantees | n/a | 21.3 | 0.350 | 0.232 | 0.126 | 0.056 | - | ||||||
| securities | n/a | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||
| bank loans | n/a | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||
| budget loans | n/a | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||
| other | n/a | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||
| guarantees | n/a | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
| TOTAL | 10,270.4 | 11,848.7 | 16,882.5 | 18,657.7 | 20,628.5 | 23,076.5 | 23,587.0 | ||||||
| in national currency | 7,749.5 | 9,331.4 | 14,056.2 | 15,759.9 | 18,079.3 | 20,112.4 | 20,564.5 | ||||||
| in foreign currency | 2,520.9 | 2,517.3 | 2,826.3 | 2,897.9 | 2,549.2 | 2,964.1 | 3,022.5 | ||||||
| in national currency | 75.5% | 78.8% | 83.3% | 84.5% | 87.6% | 87.2% | 87.2% | ||||||
| in foreign currency | 24.5% | 21.2% | 16.7% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 12.8% | ||||||
| Breakdown by type of security | 7,749.5 | 9,331.4 | 14,056.2 | 15,759.9 | 18,079.3 | 20,112.9 | 20,564.5 | ||||||
| OFZ | 7,387.2 | 8,969.1 | 13,708.9 | 15,533.5 | 17,904.9 | 19,977.5 | 20,462.1 | ||||||
| OFZ-PD (fixed coupon) | 4,929.4 | 6,474.7 | 8,102.2 | 9,812.7 | 9,794.8 | 10,944.7 | 11,424.1 | ||||||
| OFZ-AD (amortized) | 416.9 | 345.0 | 282.6 | 209.3 | 166.0 | 122.7 | 93.231 | ||||||
| OFZ-PK (floating coupon) | 1,731.8 | 1,713.9 | 4,709.3 | 4,709.3 | 6,896.9 | 7,724.8 | 7,724.8 | ||||||
| OFZ-IN (inflation protected) | 253.5 | 371.2 | 574.8 | 763.1 | 1,025.1 | 1,171.7 | 1,211.9 | ||||||
| OFZn (for population) | 55.6 | 64.2 | 39.9 | 39.2 | 22.2 | 13.6 | 8.1 | ||||||
| GSO | 362.3 | 362.3 | 347.3 | 226.4 | 174.4 | 135.4 | 102.4 | ||||||
| RUB/USD exchange rate. end of period | 68.88 | 61.91 | 73.88 | 74.29 | 70.34 | 89.69 | 92.37 | ||||||
| GDP. RUB bln | 103,862 | 109,608 | 107,658 | 135,774 | 155,189 | 172,148 | 172,148 | ||||||
| % of GDP | 13.5% | 13.8% | 19.2% | 16.5% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 15.6% | ||||||
| % of general budget revenues13 | 38.2% | 38.6% | 54.5% | 46.3% | 45.7% | 44.8% | 45.6% | ||||||
| % of GDP | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9%14 | n/a | n/a | ||||||
| % of general budget revenues | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | n/a | n/a | ||||||
| General budget revenues. | 36,916.9 | 39,110.3 | 37,856.7 | 48,118.4 | 51,967.1 | 59,073.5 | 59,073.5 | ||||||
| Debt service costs. | 916.1 | 835.4 | 883.5 | 1,185.1 | 1,330.6 |
|
| ||||||
|
|
| Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 |
| ||||||
| General budget revenues. quarter |
| 15,214.7 | 11,690.9 | 13,964.8 | 15,195.8 | 18,222.0 |
| ||||||
| General budget revenues. year-to-date |
| 53,074.2 | 11,690.9 | 25,655.7 | 40,851.5 | 59,073.5 |
| ||||||
11 External/internal debt as determined by the Budget Code of the Russian Federation.
12 n/a — not available.
13 For Q1 2024, the sum of revenues for the past four quarters available is used (including Q4 2023).
14 Debt service costs for 2022 are calculated based on the federal government expenditures.
Sources: Russian Ministry of Finance, Rosstat
APPENDIX 2
Figure 9. Total par value of outstanding bonds15 by rating, RUB bln
15 Credit ratings assigned by any of the four credit rating agencies listed by the Bank of Russia are taken into account. If a debt obligation has a credit rating (irrespective of the issuer’s credit rating, if any), the issue’s credit rating applies. The indicator is calculated for the corporate bond market.
Sources: Cbonds, ACRA
Figure 10. Number of issuers by rating
Sources: Cbonds, ACRA
