A weak ruble discourages exports from the CIS to Russia
The overvaluation of the Russian ruble against the US dollar last year led to the weakening of the currencies of the CIS1 countries against the ruble. This in turn provided additional encouragement for exporters from the CIS to increase shipments to Russia. According to data2 from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth of the value of exports in USD from Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan in 2022 averaged from 20% to 40% compared to 2021. At the same time, a comparison of the obtained estimates with the data available from national sources allows us to say that the given values are the lower estimate of real growth.
Sources: Moscow Exchange, central banks, IMF
It is notable that in 2022, the value of exports from Uzbekistan to Russia recovered to the level of 2019, while for Kazakhstan and Belarus, it significantly exceeded the pre-pandemic levels.
On the back of the Russian ruble weakening this year, the exchange rates of the CIS countries’ national currencies have strengthened to almost pre-crisis values, which deprived these countries of exchange rate advantages from the sale of goods and services to Russia.
1 This analysis covers Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan.
2 Direction of Trade Statistics
