Performance of Russian energy companies in H1 2021

Dynamics of electricity and heat generation

In July and August, a number of Russia’s power generating companies published operating and financial results for the first half of this year.

Almost all of them recorded growth in the volume of produced electricity and heat in H1 2021 compared to indicators for H1 2020 — by 0.4–14.6% and 5.4–27%, respectively.

This is due to the following factors:

• Lower temperatures in winter 2021 and a longer heating season compared to 2020, as a result of which more heat energy was consumed;

• This year, the beginning of summer was warmer than last year, which led to growth in electricity used by cooling equipment (fridges, air conditioners, etc.);

• Higher consumption of power amid a gradual recovery in economic activity following the downturn triggered by limitations imposed during the coronavirus pandemic;

• Softening of restrictions of the OPEC+ oil production cut agreement, which led to a decrease in electricity consumption by oil companies.

Table. Dynamics of operating indicators and revenue for the sample of companies in H1 2021 compared to H1 2020

Note: For the sake of comparison, only data on the Russian generation of Inter RAO Group was used, and only En+ Group’s data on the power segment was used.
Sources: companies’ data, public sources, ACRA

Information on payments for electricity can be found in ACRA’s analytical commentary Payment Discipline in Russia’s Electricity Sector: End Consumers’ Debt is Growing from July 15, 2021.

The growth of production of electricity and heat had a positive impact on the revenue of generating companies — it grew by 6.3–26.6% over the reporting period, while in the first half of last year it declined. The cold weather factor mainly influences the operation of cogeneration power plans as electricity generation is forced to increase when growth in thermal capacity takes place. At the same time, a lower water level and a corresponding technological decrease in the utilization of hydroelectric power plants also lead to an increase in the utilization of thermal generation capacities and higher operating results in this segment.

Growth in the volume of electricity consumption in Russia’s Unified Energy System (UES) in the period from January to June this year (+5.2% compared to the indicator for H1 2020), as well as increased consumption of heat energy led to higher electricity prices. Prices grew by 13.4% for end users (except the population) over six months compared to the same period in 2020. These growth rates were recorded in the first pricing zone of the Wholesale Electricity and Capacity Market, which is dominated by heat energy.

Particular attention should be paid to the hydroelectric and nuclear power segments, which have their own specifics. The operational performance of RusHydro PJSC in terms of electricity generation differs from the situation in “classical” thermal generation. For H1 2020, the company posted a 32% increase in electricity generation at hydroelectric power plants due to high water content amid a general decline in electricity generation and consumption in that period, while in 2021, electricity generation declined by 6% due to a lower water content.

In the nuclear power segment, electricity generation has been steadily growing, which is directly related to the technological capabilities of nuclear power plants. The operating specifics of nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants is that their capacities are utilized in the first place and are not taken into account in electricity pricing.

In H1 2021, electricity consumption in the UES outpaced the level observed in the same period in 2020 (last year, the decrease in energy consumption was associated with warm weather, quarantine restrictions, and the OPEC+ agreement), as well as consumption seen in H1 2019 (a 2.3% increase).

These dynamics were facilitated by the colder winter in 2021 and the recovery of the domestic electricity industry against the backdrop of growing demand from the Russian economy. Taking into account the growth in electricity consumption in H1 2021, ACRA expects that by the end of 2021, the total volume of energy consumption may grow in comparison with both 2020 and 2019 — by up to 6% and 3%, respectively.

Summing up the above trends in the industry, it should be noted that the moderately growing demand for energy produced by Russian generating companies provides some support for the sustainability of their financial and operational performance indicators.