The credit rating of the Moscow Region (hereinafter, the Region) is based on the Region’s highly developed economy, stable budget indicators, moderately low debt load, and sufficient budget liquidity.

The Positive outlook on the Region’s credit rating stems from the expected improvement of budget profile indicators amid high growth of tax and non-tax revenues (TNTR), with the probability of reaching the maximum possible score for the share of TNTR. It is currently a factor that restrains the rating assessment, along with the fairly high volume of the expected budget deficit, which affects a number of calculated indicators. If the budget is executed with a smaller deficit, the achieved level of liquidity may be partially retained, which will also be a factor in upgrading the credit rating.

The Moscow Region is a large, industrially developed region whose contribution to Russia’s economy is significant (RUB 6.8 tln in 2021, or 5.6% of the gross regional product (GRP) of Russia’s regions in the same year). The Region ranks second in the country by population (5.8% of the total in 2022).


Moderately low debt load and sufficient budget liquidity. In 2022, the debt load of the Region’s budget remained almost unchanged and amounted to 37% of current revenues. The debt structure has changed after the restructuring of bank loans and the receipt of budget loans in support of infrastructure projects. So far this year, the share of budget loans has grown due to the provision of a budget loan and Federal Treasury Department (FTD) loan to the region. ACRA expects that the ratio of debt to current revenues will grow by the end of 2023 due to the need to cover the planned budget deficit, but this growth will not affect the credit rating.

The ratio of the Region’s averaged1 debt to GRP is consistently below 5%. The ratio of averaged interest expenses to total budget expenditures, excluding subventions, will be less than 2% in 2020−2024, which indicates that interest expenses are not burdensome for the regional budget. As of January 1, 2023, 15% of the Region’s debt obligations were to be repaid (refinanced) this year and 12% next year. The receipt of an FTD loan this year temporarily changed the Region’s debt repayment schedule.

Liquidity available to the Region is sufficient to cover its expenditures, including interest payments. As a result of a substantial increase in expenditures in December 2022 relative to monthly average expenditures, the amount of funds held in the Region’s accounts shrank significantly. Nevertheless, the amount held in these accounts throughout 2022 allowed the Region to earn 2% of its TNTR. As of H1 2023, the Region’s liquidity has increased almost sevenfold compared to the start of the year. Periods of significant growth in liquidity allow the Region to earn significant interest income. The liquidity ratio (as per ACRA’s methodology) amounted to 64% in 2022; this year, it may not exceed 20% if the Region’s budget is executed with the planned deficit.

1 Hereinafter, averages are calculated according to the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities of the Russian Federation.

Self-sufficient budget with a flexible spending structure. The Region’s internal revenues are consistently high. The averaged ratio of TNTR to budget revenues (excluding subventions) will equal 89.5% for 2020−2024.

The averaged share of capital expenditures in the Region’s total expenditures, excluding subventions, will equal 25% for this period. A significant share of capital expenditures is covered by the Region on its own.

According to ACRA’s methodology, the averaged ratio of the balance of current operations to current revenues will equal 16% for 2020−2024, while the ratio of the averaged modified budget deficit to current revenues will be -8%. This indicates that the Region’s current revenues are sufficient to cover its current expenditures, as well as the need to borrow funds to finance capital expenditures.

It is assumed that this year’s budget will be executed with a deficit of more than 10% of TNTR, which will be financed using borrowed funds. Nevertheless, over the first half of this year, the budget was executed with a considerable surplus due to slower spending compared to the generation of budget revenues.

High economic diversification and a favorable geographic location. The dominant industry is the food industry (about 25% of industrial production), which is not related to pro-cyclical industries. The regional budget’s tax revenues do not depend on one large taxpayer or a group of large taxpayers. Historically, the maximum share of a single taxpayer/industry in tax revenues is less than 4%/15–16%, respectively. Proximity to Moscow guarantees a stable market for products manufactured in the Region and demand for labor resources. This ensures a low unemployment rate and rather high average wages compared to the subsistence minimum in the Region: in 2022, the average wage exceeded the subsistence minimum by four times. For the entire period of observations (since 2013), the Region’s real GRP dynamics have been higher than national averages (except for two cases), and the manufacturing sector production rates significantly exceeded national averages almost each year. The Region’s population consistently grows by 1% a year (with the exception of the period when New Moscow was created and therefore the population declined due to administrative reasons). Compared to most Russian regions, where the population is declining, the Moscow Region has an advantage in this area that will determine the trajectory of its economic growth. Population growth is mainly based on the migration inflow. The share of the able-bodied population in the Region annually exceeds the national average, which also has a positive effect on its economy.


  • Execution of the budget in 2023 in accordance with the current plan;

  • Maintaining sufficient budget liquidity.


The Positive outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely be upgraded within the 12 to 18-month horizon.

A positive rating action may be prompted by:

  • Averaged share of TNTR exceeding 90%;

  • Debt load declining below 30% of current revenues;

  • Growing indicators of budget liquidity or a significant decline in budget deficits coupled with any of the above conditions.

A negative rating action may be prompted by:

  • Growth in current budget expenses without a corresponding increase in revenues;

  • Debt load exceeding 55% of current revenues;

  • Persistently low volume of available liquidity;

  • Significant reduction in the average maturity of market debt.


Moscow Region, 35010 (ISIN RU000A0JX0B9), maturity date: November 21, 2023, issue volume: RUB 25 bln — AA+(RU).

Moscow Region, 34012 (ISIN RU000A100XP4), maturity date: October 8, 2024, issue volume: RUB 25 bln — AA+(RU).

Moscow Region, 34013 (ISIN RU000A101988), maturity date: December 20, 2024, issue volume: RUB 14 bln — АА+(RU).

Moscow Region, 34014 (ISIN RU000A101WL3), maturity date: July 8, 2025, issue volume: RUB 28 bln — АА+(RU).

Moscow Region, 35015 (ISIN RU000A102CR0), maturity date: November 10, 2026, issue volume: RUB 30 bln — АА+(RU).

Moscow Region, 35016 (ISIN RU000A102G35), maturity date: November 30, 2027, issue volume: RUB 30 bln — АА+(RU).

Rationale. In the Agency’s opinion, the bonds of the Moscow Region are senior unsecured debt instruments, the credit ratings of which correspond to the credit rating of the Moscow Region.


The credit ratings have been assigned to the Moscow Region and the bond issues (ISIN RU000A0JX0B9, RU000A100XP4, RU000A101988, RU000A101WL3, RU000A102CR0, RU000A102G35) of the Moscow Region under the national scale for the Russian Federation based on the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities of the Russian Federation and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency Within the Scope of Its Rating Activities. The Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Financial Instruments under the National Scale for the Russian Federation was also applied to assign the credit ratings to the above issues.

The credit ratings of the Moscow Region and the bond issues (ISIN RU000A0JX0B9, RU000A100XP4, RU000A101988, RU000A101WL3, RU000A102CR0, RU000A102G35) of the Moscow Region were published by ACRA for the first time on December 12, 2016, December 12, 2016, October 9, 2019, December 23, 2019, July 8, 2020, November 12, 2020, and December 2, 2020, respectively. The credit rating of the Moscow Region and its outlook and the credit ratings of the bond issues (ISIN RU000A0JX0B9, RU000A100XP4, RU000A101988, RU000A101WL3, RU000A102CR0, RU000A102G35) of the Moscow Region are expected to be revised within 182 days following the publication date of this press release as per the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications.

The credit ratings were assigned based on data provided by the Moscow Region, information from publicly available sources (the Ministry of Finance, the Federal State Statistics Service, and the Federal Tax Service), and ACRA’s own databases. The credit ratings are solicited and the Government of the Moscow Region participated in their assignment.

In assigning the credit ratings, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.

ACRA provided no additional services to the Government of the Moscow Region. No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating assignment.

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